PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

No86%

Yes15%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:07 PM UTC

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24h volume$377.6K

7d volume$1.9M

30d volume$7.5M

Liquidity$833.1K

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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Polymarketthis market
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
6.6K holders · 1 comments · read Sep 26, 01:38 PM UTC
LimitlessOpen →
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
2 holders · read Sep 29, 08:00 PM UTC

Venue activity

Read from the venue 3 days ago

Holders6.6K

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 83% · best ask 84%

Top holders

TheQuietRisk55115078421062885512539156303747803058407616201213034911037320915726138659123
xm3955115078421062885512539156303747803058407616201213034911037320915726138659123
SecondWindCapital55115078421062885512539156303747803058407616201213034911037320915726138659123
RenanPresidente.1910830010387565971650098373488592514702818137344973088263643820608151819241
LulaVaiPerder1910830010387565971650098373488592514702818137344973088263643820608151819241

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As of Sep 29, 09:33 PM UTC