PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

No62%

Yes39%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:07 PM UTC

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24h volume$519.5

7d volume$817.4

30d volume$2.9K

Liquidity$823.3

Spread2%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The published criteria are materially identical. Polymarket lists resolution at 2027-01-01 04:59 UTC, while Limitless lists 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC; this is only a settlement-time difference, not a difference in the measured question.

Polymarketthis market
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
174 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 26, 11:36 PM UTC
LimitlessOpen →
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026: <5
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
6 holders · read Sep 29, 08:14 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will 15-16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	63% Yes	$583.9	—	—	Open
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	98% No	$549.6	—	—	Open
Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	$470.4	—	—	Open
Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	$442.7	—	—	Open
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	$402.7	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 3 days ago

Holders174

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 53% · best ask 61%

Top holders

0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b12966108274249976865200285399055028180907021395947249491255471470364491925454297602
Jam-Packed-Fraud36062429679865523787623068309302905887961488865948110723876152708058004555549
IronE108274249976865200285399055028180907021395947249491255471470364491925454297602
nellojello36062429679865523787623068309302905887961488865948110723876152708058004555549
zhaoyk36062429679865523787623068309302905887961488865948110723876152708058004555549

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As of Sep 29, 09:29 PM UTC