PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will 15-16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

No100%

Yes0%

Price checked at Oct 1, 04:43 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$3K

Spread0%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The venues list different nominal resolution times (Limitless: December 31, 2026; Polymarket: January 1, 2027), but both use the same December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET measurement cutoff. No material resolution-criteria difference is published.

LimitlessOpen →
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026: 15-16
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
0 holders · read Oct 1, 01:18 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will 15-16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
83 holders · 0 comments · read Oct 1, 02:08 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	69% No	$99.7	—	—	Open
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	62% Yes	$20.6	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 3 hours ago

Holders83

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

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Open interest—

Comments0

Top holders

0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296679708138110926765689005855887641805219962536926807581993739419531911158183281
Breakable-Bottomline59956068770785273665419484070482212662843360129848576102730478874085267147245
huyewell59956068770785273665419484070482212662843360129848576102730478874085267147245
Anne66659956068770785273665419484070482212662843360129848576102730478874085267147245
e46m359956068770785273665419484070482212662843360129848576102730478874085267147245

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As of Oct 1, 05:25 PM UTC