PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

No100%

Yes0%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:07 PM UTC

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24h volume$402.7

7d volume$1.1K

30d volume$1.9K

Liquidity$1.1K

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The markets have materially identical resolution criteria and sources; Limitless lists resolution at December 31, 2026, while Polymarket lists January 1, 2027 at 04:59 UTC (equivalent to December 31 at 11:59 PM ET).

LimitlessOpen →
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026: 9-10
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2 holders · read Sep 29, 08:22 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
94 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 26, 10:01 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will 15-16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	63% Yes	$583.9	—	—	Open
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	98% No	$549.6	—	—	Open
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	62% No	$519.5	—	—	Open
Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	$470.4	—	—	Open
Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	$442.7	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 3 days ago

Holders94

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

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Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 0% · best ask 1%

Top holders

0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296692753378379890594987579176391673387302955841522730684083658512551037210848334
Breakable-Bottomline65204571522376669216156468926130548981402705966424997350654016267021708775616
IronE65204571522376669216156468926130548981402705966424997350654016267021708775616
Academic-Forecast65204571522376669216156468926130548981402705966424997350654016267021708775616
planktonXD65204571522376669216156468926130548981402705966424997350654016267021708775616

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As of Sep 29, 09:52 PM UTC