PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

No98%

Yes2%

Price checked at Sep 30, 03:20 AM UTC

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24h volume$98.8

7d volume$845.9

30d volume$2K

Liquidity$3.4K

Spread2%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria are materially identical. Polymarket lists settlement at 2027-01-01 04:59 UTC, while Limitless lists 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC; this settlement-time difference does not change the underlying question.

Polymarketthis market
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
124 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 25, 04:07 PM UTC
LimitlessOpen →
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026: 7-8
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
5 holders · read Sep 30, 01:02 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will 15-16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	59% Yes	$120.1	—	—	Open
Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	$100.5	—	—	Open
Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	$82.8	—	—	Open
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	61% No	$28.1	—	—	Open
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Polymarket	99% No	$12.8	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 4 days ago

Holders124

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 2% · best ask 5%

Top holders

0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296669960315520943112218341999923382008143879801155478597363382485274806808584009
IronE1840177612036013575448372082807311040387833663832563938882269252171934676747
LornaPredicts1840177612036013575448372082807311040387833663832563938882269252171934676747
1walrus1840177612036013575448372082807311040387833663832563938882269252171934676747
Joe-Biden1840177612036013575448372082807311040387833663832563938882269252171934676747

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As of Sep 30, 03:32 AM UTC