LimitlessOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026: <5

Yes50%

No50%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:32 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

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ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The published criteria are materially identical. Polymarket lists resolution at 2027-01-01 04:59 UTC, while Limitless lists 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC; this is only a settlement-time difference, not a difference in the measured question.

PolymarketOpen →
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
174 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 26, 11:36 PM UTC
Limitlessthis market
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026: <5
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
6 holders · read Sep 29, 08:14 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026: 5-6	Limitless	50% No	—	—	—	Open
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026: 11-12	Limitless	99% No	—	—	—	Open
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026: 7-8	Limitless	98% No	—	—	—	Open
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026: 9-10	Limitless	99% No	—	—	—	Open
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026: 13-14	Limitless	50% No	—	—	—	Open
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026: 15-16	Limitless	50% No	—	—	—	Open
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026: >16	Limitless	99% No	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 1 hour ago

Holders6

Held value$220.6

Trades (24h)—

Trades3

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 0% · best ask 100%

Top holders

sYes$98.3
0x83a54Eb6ecD18E68DeB0Df994E7C1D7318B5DDD0No$57.6
0xB1A36bE1Ed2F36bcC3B138CAD10366A6b5d550A8No$52.3
0x795fd17dE8Fc54650bF0E4B273B4a099A5e49f81No$5.9
0x7b850Cf41910A9b9De98BA14AF87247405BB87a0Yes$5.3

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Recent trades

—48%$4.8last month
—38%$77.22 months ago
—44%$53 months ago

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As of Sep 29, 09:32 PM UTC