PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

No93%

Yes7%

Price checked at Sep 29, 08:17 PM UTC

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24h volume$15.4

7d volume$7K

30d volume$56.6K

Liquidity$17.4K

Spread2%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

The same question elsewhere

4 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Polymarket and Limitless display settlement times shortly after the stated deadline; Opinion and PredictFun do not provide a settlement timestamp. The published resolution criteria and sources otherwise differ in no material way.

OpinionOpen →
Will Base launch a token by ... — December 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Base officially launches a token on or before the specified deadline at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base (https://x.com/base), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
read Sep 29, 08:31 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
963 holders · 181 comments · read Sep 27, 06:20 PM UTC
PredictFunOpen →
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
read Sep 29, 08:23 PM UTC
LimitlessOpen →
Will Base launch a token by __: December 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
9 holders · read Sep 29, 07:51 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Polymarket	63% No	$70	—	—	Open
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Polymarket	58% Yes	$62.7	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 days ago

Holders963

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments191

Best bid 90% · best ask 91%

Top holders

Loathsome-Emphasis25537301018568558689509959375134200843374787525809263597130671425208747239474
nigabutt6944816229620748629831606438593495518497709847643579849056284090396785477672494
LemonBrothers44816229620748629831606438593495518497709847643579849056284090396785477672494
churna25537301018568558689509959375134200843374787525809263597130671425208747239474
etar44816229620748629831606438593495518497709847643579849056284090396785477672494

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL90%$98.12 days ago
SELL90%$3.92 days ago
BUY92%$12 days ago
SELL91%$95.62 days ago
BUY9%$3.53 days ago
SELL8%$13 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.

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191 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

wagmiser · 19 days ago
jesse tweeted that decentralizing is getting closer.... token soon fellas
steam22 · 3 months ago
yes always the same...
alts4life · 3 months ago
baiting never launching
SomeshKadam · 3 months ago
Who are these bots commenting below ? BTW $BASE this year is an easy one ig :))
anonymous · 3 months ago
base for everyone
Amitredhu1322 · 4 months ago
Today is the day. Hoping for something big
perpcode0072nell · 4 months ago
What are all these bots in the comments
fghbfd · 4 months ago
Polymarket never lets me down.
tyghjdtgjh · 4 months ago
Great content.
dszvfDV · 4 months ago
Practical
sdfbxfcgfcx · 4 months ago
nice
tjhgnfghfgh · 4 months ago
good
wstgswagtsdgt · 4 months ago
Amazing.
derfgfgsfdrgr · 4 months ago
Wonderful.
efasdfwsaed · 4 months ago
Play smart, not reckless
efrsadgsdrfg · 4 months ago
Great experience overall
rfhgtsdhg · 4 months ago
Odds update in real time
dfsAFdsadf · 4 months ago
All good
dfrgdhghyrtyh · 4 months ago
Great experience overall.
dfrghdfgdfg · 4 months ago
Full of surprises

As of Sep 29, 08:33 PM UTC