Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?

No100%
Yes0%

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24h volume$2.9
7d volume$2.9
30d volume$128.7K
Liquidity$554.1K
Spread0%
ResolvesApr 19, 2027in 7 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria are materially identical; Polymarket lists a January 1, 2028 resolution timestamp, while PredictFun does not publish one. Both specify resolution by credible reporting or, if ambiguous, France’s Ministry of the Interior, with an Other outcome if results are unknown by December 31, 2027.
  • Polymarketthis market

    Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?

    The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

    146 holders · 768 comments · read Sep 22, 09:22 AM UTC

  • PredictFunOpen →

    Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?

    The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

    read Sep 29, 09:24 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Lucie Castets win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket57% NoOpen
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket99% NoOpen
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket86% NoOpen
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket92% NoOpen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket99% NoOpen
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket95% NoOpen
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket82% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders146
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments770

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  • JustCrazy8417479461192816073798823433426740344330831676987487244311182202618459546538
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Discussion on Predxy

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770 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • The-Last-Degen · 7 hours ago

    Where is that guy that bet the house on Villepin

  • WhaleWatch-02684 · 17 hours ago

    Tradman holds $13,755.64 on Marine Le Pen outcome Yes. Unrealized profit: $6,670.70. They turned $7,084.94 into over $13,755.64.

  • martinreddot · yesterday

    Amazing that she could even be candidate!

  • Hot-Skull · 2 days ago

    I think we have other more important problems

  • Hot-Skull · 2 days ago

    Pareil

  • Giorgio2 · 2 days ago

    I could fuck with Clemence Guette if asked to

  • Fond-Killing · 2 days ago

    I can't lie Lisnard is a great candidate. He has got confidence and quite literally he is the most articulate Presidential candidate. However, I am unable to support him as he does not endorse a policy to fully ban hijab in all public spaces. It's about time French people realize that hijabs are just as bad as burqas

  • RoadtoSanary · 2 days ago

    Parce que personne le connaît pour l'instant

  • RoadtoSanary · 2 days ago

    Lisnard a des chances de passer, il dit pas de la merde, il est en fort en débat, il a du charisme mais le problème est qu'il est pas assez connu

  • WhaleWatch-17056 · 2 days ago

    lastminwin is up 9.34% on their $35,498.84 bet on Édouard Philippe with outcome No. Current value: $38,815.91. When you see returns like that, you pay attention.

  • Fond-Killing · 2 days ago

    Don't worry about that at all. Le Pen is double digits ahead of both Melenchon and Phillipe in the first round. The second round worries be because tyrants like Islamists and white liberal women will form a bloc to vote against Le Pen.

  • WhaleWatch-65063 · 2 days ago

    lastminwin is up 9.34% on their $35,498.84 bet on Édouard Philippe with outcome No. Current value: $38,815.91. When you see returns like that, you pay attention.

  • WhaleWatch-57678 · 2 days ago

    flovertaco is currently one of the most profitable traders on Marine Le Pen with already $3,607.98 / +40.59% in total gains. Their position: $12,497.03 on outcome Yes. When the top earner doubles down, keep watching.

  • Baggy-Lion · 2 days ago

    I first was about to trash talk on you but its actually not a bad idea except if we all do that she might not go 2 round SO no thanks you, lets just make here pass first round

  • Hot-Skull · 2 days ago

    Lisnard ☺️

  • Fond-Killing · 2 days ago

    To all the French patriots out there. Please vote Melenchon in the first round to ensure that Le Pen and Melenchon gets paired in the second round. Even a dog can win against the Islamist Melenchon. If Édouard Phillipe advances to the second round, Le Pen could be in trouble as Phillipe will attract a sizeable portion of moderate voters.

  • Warm-Supplier · 2 days ago

    T'as la haine le gaucho ?

  • Bouba0 · 3 days ago

    New poll coming out Monday, Melenchon’s in the 2nd round at 20%, with LePen.

  • perfectnostalgia · 3 days ago

    "It's Christinith! Are you stupid or are you deaf?!"

  • Clemptefr · 3 days ago

    Next poll on Monday: Le Pen 57% – Philippe 43%. Mélenchon qualifies for the second round in every scenario.

As of Sep 29, 10:58 PM UTC