PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027?

No89%

Yes12%

Price checked at Sep 29, 11:57 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$2.5K

Spread11%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria appear identical, including the legal enactment standard and consensus-of-credible-reporting source; no material venue difference is stated.

Polymarketthis market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
24 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 21, 05:14 PM UTC
LimitlessOpen →
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027: Israel
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
0 holders · read Sep 29, 11:01 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Polymarket	90% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?	Polymarket	93% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?	Polymarket	86% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?	Polymarket	94% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?	Polymarket	92% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027?	Polymarket	92% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?	Polymarket	86% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom" before 2027?	Polymarket	90% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027?	Polymarket	92% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Russia" before 2027?	Polymarket	91% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	Polymarket	92% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?	Polymarket	91% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?	Polymarket	90% No	$131.8	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?	Polymarket	87% No	$124.4	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?	Polymarket	93% No	$30	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?	Polymarket	89% No	$5	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 8 days ago

Holders24

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Top holders

randomWalkingShrimp80459125728403188507831663779552224514697596906694537275255129413344119306475
0xfea6c7f29c2d7aa59e5b11e1e1bd90bc166ce25013259153085399028359800260604087065927199218317292556631670408353753173925540
trickykid13259153085399028359800260604087065927199218317292556631670408353753173925540
Krass80459125728403188507831663779552224514697596906694537275255129413344119306475
roman-1680459125728403188507831663779552224514697596906694537275255129413344119306475

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL10%$0.323 days ago
SELL82%$1.825 days ago
BUY90%$4.825 days ago
BUY85%$47.825 days ago
BUY86%$1last month
BUY86%$1last month

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As of Sep 30, 12:29 AM UTC