PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?

No86%

Yes15%

Price checked at Sep 30, 04:09 AM UTC

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24h volume$124.4

7d volume$124.4

30d volume$476.4

Liquidity$1.5K

Spread10%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria and deadline are materially identical; no material venue-specific resolution difference is stated.

Polymarketthis market
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
53 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 25, 02:06 PM UTC
LimitlessOpen →
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027: Mexico
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
0 holders · read Sep 29, 11:01 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Polymarket	89% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?	Polymarket	93% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?	Polymarket	86% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?	Polymarket	91% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?	Polymarket	92% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027?	Polymarket	91% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?	Polymarket	87% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom" before 2027?	Polymarket	91% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027?	Polymarket	92% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027?	Polymarket	87% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Russia" before 2027?	Polymarket	91% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	Polymarket	92% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?	Polymarket	91% No	—	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?	Polymarket	89% No	$131.8	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?	Polymarket	93% No	$30	—	—	Open
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?	Polymarket	89% No	$5	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 5 days ago

Holders53

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 78% · best ask 86%

Top holders

Krass5928889740654927082935335375592036174959963044383257521307694400812078265463
Avitz3394614870970153502242010952450748174096731597825502476169505505717377568378474
Newshound94614870970153502242010952450748174096731597825502476169505505717377568378474
LornaPredicts5928889740654927082935335375592036174959963044383257521307694400812078265463
ScaryDream94614870970153502242010952450748174096731597825502476169505505717377568378474

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL14%$0.78 days ago
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BUY78%$6.29 days ago
BUY19%$2.311 days ago
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BUY25%$1012 days ago

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As of Sep 30, 04:30 AM UTC