Will UKMTO publish fewer than 8 notices between October 19-October 25?

78%Yes
2 ptsover 24h

The field · 5 outcomes

  1. <8 · this question78%2
  2. 8-1120%8
  3. 12-152%7
  4. 16-191%4
  5. 20+1%0
24h volume$444
Total volume$2.8K
Markets11 venue, 1 priced
ResolvesOct 26, 2026in 2 days
First seenOct 16, 2026
Watching0

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 16Oct 18Oct 20Oct 22Oct 24Up 15 points on Oct 17Up 34 points on Oct 21Down 9 points on Oct 22
▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

If you’re right

$
Side
VenuePriceSharesPaysProfit
Polymarket81¢123$123+$23.46 1.2×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

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  3. 3NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?
    7%Yes16 pts
  4. 4NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
    19%Yes15 pts
  5. 5US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
    87%Yes4 pts

As of Oct 24, 12:11 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.