Will Trump say "Refinery" before Nov 16, 2026?

45%Refinery

7 ptsover 24h

ResolvesNov 16, 2026 · in 6 days

The field · 35 outcomes

24h volume$763

Total volume$1K

Liquidity$0

Open interest$744

Markets: 1 · 1 venue, 1 priced
First seen: Nov 9, 2026
Watching: 0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Kalshi · All recorded history

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▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Kalshi. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

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1 venue

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

Will Trump say "Refinery" before Nov 16, 2026?
55% No$763 24h volumeResolution rules
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What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	45¢	222	$222	+$122 2.2×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

As of Nov 10, 10:25 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.

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Will Trump say "Refinery" before Nov 16, 2026?

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