Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by December 31?

12%Yes

6 ptsover 24h

The field · 3 outcomes

24h volume$76

Total volume$3K

Liquidity$460

Open interest—

Markets11 venue, 1 priced

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months

First seenSep 17, 2026

Watching0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Polymarket · All recorded history

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▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

What happened

Jun 1, 2026Trump signed an executive order framed around AI innovation, cybersecurity, and critical infrastructure. Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Signs Historic Directive on AI in the National Security Enterprise – The White House
Jun 2, 2026Trump issued executive order promoting advanced artificial intelligence innovation and security. New AI Executive Order Calls for Frontier Model Security, Early Government Access and AI-Enabled Cyber Defense
Sep 1, 2026Trump signed an order telling agencies to use “Super Intelligence” instead of “AI” in official communications. Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Signs Historic Directive on AI in the National Security Enterprise – The White House
Sep 29, 2026Trump issued executive order directing agencies to use term Super Intelligence instead of Artificial Intelligence. Executive Order Rebrands AI as “Super Intelligence” and Signals Potential Federal Legislative Changes: Wiley
Oct 9, 2026Axios reported White House officials were moving to require AI firms to report and fix security incidents. Exclusive: Anthropic breaches spark White House AI reporting mandate
Oct 10, 2026AP reported the administration hosted tech leaders around a voluntary AI safety pact. Exclusive: Anthropic breaches spark White House AI reporting mandate

Dated from the reporting the question's context cites, and placed alongside the price — never as the reason it moved. Written by AI from cited sources; in English.

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What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	14¢	714	$714	+$614 7.1×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

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Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by December 31?
88% No$76 24h volume
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Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by December 31?

Probability history

What happened

If you’re right

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Probability history

What happened

If you’re right

Where this question trades

More in AI