UnclassifiedUnited States

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?

3%Yes

2 ptsover 24h

24h volume$47

Total volume$87.5K

Liquidity$21.3K

Open interest—

Markets11 venue, 1 priced

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months

First seenSep 2, 2026

Watching0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Polymarket · All recorded history

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Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

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What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	3.6¢	2,778	$2,778	+$2,678 27.8×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

1 venue

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
97% No$47 24h volume
Resolution rules
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As of Nov 2, 05:17 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.