Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue yesterdayTop holders
- asdwwwdsf28451915000128782636780044264467439143621766753161141818784072167276807900789
- CP-directional56171596654096993266437928673191952417794585690965816623142122683965323815881
- Liamyy28451915000128782636780044264467439143621766753161141818784072167276807900789
- Avaghghgv28451915000128782636780044264467439143621766753161141818784072167276807900789
- Limp-Crystal28451915000128782636780044264467439143621766753161141818784072167276807900789
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Discussion on Predxy
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23 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Danya.Savin · 2 months ago
на удачу🏴
- crux1s · 2 months ago
Where the in combat prediction market? If Nuke gonna be used
- maklermakler · 4 months ago
there could be, apperntly elon musk was discussing surgical large scale weaponry this week at the white house correspondence dinner
- S888 · 5 months ago
Nuclear testing program and your bet is dumb
- thecaricature · 5 months ago
We do have a nuclear program.
- thecaricature · 5 months ago
It was a warcrime when we used them on Japan, and that didn't stop us. 🤣
- thecaricature · 5 months ago
"More large-scale surgical."
- CompromisedGuy · 6 months ago
Maybe there's a more powerful weapon against iran than a nuclear weapon. Something more large-scale surgical.
- SanchisMAD · 6 months ago
What about a yes-combat detonation in Iran?
- Master-bettor · 7 months ago
yes no maybe so
- archived250101 · 7 months ago
No. Nukes are impractical to use and have never been used for a long time. Of course North Korea still does it because it's a toy to them, however UN considers it a war crime to use.
- adonpoli · 9 months ago
nice
- S888 · 11 months ago
why are people betting the US will have a nuclear program set up in less than 2 weeks? lol
- copefan · 11 months ago
He said we will test nuclear like other countries did, he might refer to North Korea in 2017 where they did detonate a nuclear warhead, also after the journalist said if he’s going to test with actual warheads he said he cannot tell
- hutu · 11 months ago
I doubt the U.S. goes for a nuclear test anytime soon, but every time tensions spike, people start wondering if Washington might revive old Cold War habits.
- Crowded-Screwup · 11 months ago
A U.S. nuclear test could happen by the end of 2025 if geopolitical tensions escalate, but such a decision would likely be met with international criticism and calls for diplomacy.
- Rebecco · 11 months ago
hope for world peace
- semid · 11 months ago
I should be holding better to my yesses then
- cryptogatsu · 11 months ago
ez moonie [link removed]
- semid · 11 months ago
Noope
As of Sep 30, 11:03 PM UTC