Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?

29%Yes

3 ptsover 24h

The field · 4 outcomes

24h volume$2.2K

Total volume$8K

Liquidity$1K

Open interest—

Markets11 venue, 1 priced

ResolvesJul 1, 2027in 8 months

First seenOct 28, 2026

Watching0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Polymarket · All recorded history

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▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

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What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	30¢	333	$333	+$233 3.3×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

1 venue

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?
71% No$2.2K 24h volume
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Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?

Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

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Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

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