Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?: Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027?

10%Before Jan 1, 2027

0 ptsover 24h

The field · 3 outcomes

24h volume$0

Total volume$1.8K

Liquidity$0

Open interest$888

Markets11 venue, 0 priced

ResolvesJan 8, 2029in 2 years

First seenSep 17, 2026

Watching0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Kalshi · All recorded history

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▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Kalshi. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

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What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	17¢	588	$588	+$488 5.9×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

1 venue

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?: Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027?
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Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?: Will OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027?

Probability history

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Where this question trades

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Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

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