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World

Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?

20%Yes
2 ptsover 24h

The field · 5 outcomes

  1. 10+ · this question20%2
  2. 20+9%2
  3. 50+6%0
  4. 30+5%0
  5. 40+3%0
24h volume$0
Total volume$0
Markets11 venue, 0 priced
ResolvesNov 1, 2026in 7 days
First seenSep 30, 2026
Watching0

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 30Oct 6Oct 13Oct 19Oct 25Down 16 points on Oct 5Up 20 points on Oct 7Down 15 points on Oct 10Up 16 points on Oct 13Down 29 points on Oct 14
▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

If you’re right

$
Side
VenuePriceSharesPaysProfit
Polymarket30¢333$333+$233 3.3×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

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  4. 4US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
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As of Oct 25, 04:43 AM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.