Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Japan this month?

52%Yes

3 ptsover 24h

The field · 7 outcomes

24h volume$305

Total volume$325

Liquidity$134

Open interest—

Markets11 venue, 1 priced

ResolvesDec 4, 2026next month

First seenOct 30, 2026

Watching0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Polymarket · All recorded history

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Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

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What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	77¢	130	$130	+$29.87 1.3×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

1 venue

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Japan this month?
52% Yes$305 24h volume
Resolution rules
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Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Japan this month?

Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

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Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

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