New York's 4th District margin of victory: Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 12 percentage points? Democrats, 12+ pts

35%Democrats, 12+ pts

0 ptsover 24h

The field · 8 outcomes

24h volume$0

Total volume$2.9K

Liquidity—

Open interest$2K

Markets11 venue, 0 priced

ResolvesNov 3, 2027next year

First seenSep 7, 2026

Watching0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Kalshi · All recorded history

Open the market

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

No recorded data before Oct 4 in this window.

Based on market prices from Kalshi. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

If you’re right

What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	42¢	238	$238	+$138 2.4×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

1 venue

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

New York's 4th District margin of victory: Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 12 percentage points? Gillen, 12+ pts
65% Gillen, 12+ pts$0 24h volume
Resolution rules
Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country

Search

New York's 4th District margin of victory: Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 12 percentage points? Democrats, 12+ pts

Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

More in Politics

Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

More in Politics