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WorldIsraelLebanonIsraelLebanon

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?

15%Yes
2 ptsover 24h

The field · 10 outcomes

  1. October 2498%9
  2. October 2596%8
  3. October 2795%6
  4. October 2695%7
  5. October 1893%1
  6. October 3091%5
  7. October 2891%1
  8. October 3187%2
  9. October 2982%0
  10. October 6 · this question15%2
24h volume$0
Total volume$0
Markets11 venue, 0 priced
ResolvesOct 7, 202618 days ago
First seenOct 1, 2026
Watching0

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 1Oct 7Oct 13Oct 18Oct 24Up 12 points on Oct 2Down 40 points on Oct 6Up 10 points on Oct 7Down 47 points on Oct 8Up 12 points on Oct 10
▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

If you’re right

$
Side
VenuePriceSharesPaysProfit
Polymarket30¢333$333+$233 3.3×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

More in World

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  1. 1NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
    2%Yes40 pts
  2. 2US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
    81%Yes4 pts
  3. 3NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?
    7%Yes16 pts
  4. 4NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
    19%Yes30 pts
  5. 5US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
    90%Yes9 pts

As of Oct 24, 07:41 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.