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WorldIsraelLebanonIsraelLebanon

Israel military action against Lebanon on October 24?

98%Yes
9 ptsover 24h

The field · 10 outcomes

  1. October 24 · this question98%9
  2. October 2596%10
  3. October 2795%6
  4. October 1893%1
  5. October 3091%5
  6. October 2891%1
  7. October 2690%1
  8. October 3187%2
  9. October 2982%0
  10. October 615%2
24h volume$252
Total volume$2K
Markets11 venue, 1 priced
ResolvesOct 25, 2026in 10 hours
First seenOct 1, 2026
Watching0

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 1Oct 7Oct 13Oct 18Oct 24Down 32 points on Oct 4Up 22 points on Oct 6Up 12 points on Oct 7Down 12 points on Oct 16Up 14 points on Oct 17
▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

If you’re right

$
Side
VenuePriceSharesPaysProfit
Polymarket98.1¢*102$102+$1.99 1×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

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  4. 4NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
    18%Yes24 pts
  5. 5US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
    88%Yes5 pts

As of Oct 24, 06:23 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.