Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?: Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2028?

35%Before Jan 1, 2028

0 ptsover 24h

The field · 7 outcomes

24h volume$0

Total volume$2K

Liquidity—

Open interest$1.4K

Markets11 venue, 0 priced

ResolvesJan 8, 2029in 2 years

First seenSep 17, 2026

Watching0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Kalshi · All recorded history

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▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Kalshi. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

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What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	42¢	238	$238	+$138 2.4×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

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1 venue

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?: Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2028?
65% No$0 24h volume
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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?: Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2028?

Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

More in Politics

Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

More in Politics