Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history
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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming NFL football game between Cowboys and Colts, scheduled for November 8 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ryan Flournoy scores the first rushing or receiving touchdown in this game. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Defensive and special teams touchdowns do not count. If the first touchdown is a passing touchdown, only the player credited with the receiving touchdown counts as the first touchdown scorer. Overtime is included if played. All statistics are based on the official NFL game book as published on NFL.com at the conclusion of the game. Stat corrections issued after the game has been completed will not count. If the player is inactive or does not play, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, the "Other" outcome resolves "Yes".
Comparable, not identical. Polymarket settles on the first rushing or receiving touchdown by Flournoy and gives No if he does not play; Kalshi settles on whether Flournoy scores the first touchdown in the same game, with additional rules for snaps and no-touchdown cases. The published criteria differ in settlement details but not in the underlying question.
this market
Will Ryan Flournoy score the first touchdown?
In the upcoming NFL football game between Cowboys and Colts, scheduled for November 8 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ryan Flournoy scores the first rushing or receiving touchdown in this game. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Defensive and special teams touchdowns do not count. If the first touchdown is a passing touchdown, only the player credited with the receiving touchdown counts as the first touchdown scorer. Overtime is included if played. All statistics are based on the official NFL game book as published on NFL.com at the conclusion of the game. Stat corrections issued after the game has been completed will not count. If the player is inactive or does not play, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, the "Other" outcome resolves "Yes".
If Ryan Flournoy scores the first touchdown in Dallas vs Indianapolis Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to Ryan Flournoy in the Dallas vs Indianapolis professional football game originally scheduled for Nov 8, 2026. If Ryan Flournoy is active but never takes a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before game start. Once Ryan Flournoy takes at least one snap, even if nullified by penalty, the market settles based on touchdowns scored. If no touchdowns are scored in the game, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes and all other player markets resolve to No. Touchdowns scored on fake punts or field goals by the offensive team do not count as a special teams touchdown.
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