Will Haley Stevens leave the Democratic party?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
No recorded data before Nov 1 in this window.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If Haley Stevens leaves or announces that they are leaving the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For Senators only: If, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, Haley Stevens announces they will no longer caucus with the Democratic party or begins caucusing with a different party, the market also resolves to Yes. If Haley Stevens changes their official party registration from Democratic to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, or announces they are no longer a member of the Democratic party, or is expelled from the Democratic party by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes. For Senators only: If, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, Haley Stevens announces they will no longer caucus with the Democratic party or begins caucusing with a different party, the market also resolves to Yes.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party? | Kalshi | 89% No | Open |
| Will Lisa Murkowski leave the Republican party? | Kalshi | 85% No | Open |
| Will Don Bacon leave the Republican party? | Kalshi | 96% No | Open |
| Will Henry Cuellar leave the Democratic party? | Kalshi | 99% No | Open |
| Will Thomas Massie leave the Republican party? | Kalshi | 92% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue this minuteDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Nov 2, 04:01 AM UTC