Miami (FL) wins by over 4.5 points

No81%
Miami (FL) wins by over 4.5 points19%

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24h volume$117
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$132
Spread2%
ResolvesNov 3, 2026in 7 hours

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Miami (FL) wins by more than 4.5 points in the Florida vs Miami (FL) men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. They differ only in settlement details: Gemini names specific source agencies and a later resolves-at time, while Kalshi specifies postponement/cancellation treatment. Those published criteria do not materially change the question being priced.
  • Miami vs Florida: spread: Miami (-4.5)

    This market resolves to Yes if the score differential recorded in favor of Miami (FL) in the entire men's college basketball game between Miami and Florida scheduled for 2026-11-02 at 5:00 p.m. CT is above 4.5. Otherwise, it resolves to No. The Underlying is the score differential (Miami (FL)'s score minus Florida's score) for the specified game. Source Agencies, in order, are the league governing the event (NCAA), ESPN, Fox Sports, and the official broadcast partner of the event. If the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date (including because the event is cancelled or a team forfeits, withdraws, or is disqualified), the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to the Market Outcome Review Process. View the [full rules](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Terms_and_Conditions_NCAA_MB_Margin_Classdocx_0e17934c-24ae-4b91-99e3-4c46d7d5d741.pdf).

  • Kalshithis market

    Miami (FL) wins by over 4.5 points

    If Miami (FL) wins by more than 4.5 points in the Florida vs Miami (FL) men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Florida wins by over 5.5 pointsKalshi54% Florida wins by over 5.5 pointsOpen
Florida wins by over 4.5 pointsKalshi59% Florida wins by over 4.5 pointsOpen
Florida wins by over 6.5 pointsKalshi54% NoOpen
Florida wins by over 3.5 pointsKalshi61% Florida wins by over 3.5 pointsOpen
Florida wins by over 26.5 pointsKalshi97% NoOpen
Florida wins by over 1.5 pointsKalshi69% Florida wins by over 1.5 pointsOpen
Florida wins by over 2.5 pointsKalshi65% Florida wins by over 2.5 pointsOpen
Florida wins by over 7.5 pointsKalshi53% Florida wins by over 7.5 pointsOpen
Miami (FL) wins by over 1.5 pointsKalshi73% NoOpen
Florida wins by over 9.5 pointsKalshi60% NoOpen
Miami (FL) wins by over 19.5 pointsKalshi98% NoOpen
Florida wins by over 8.5 pointsKalshi53% NoOpen
Florida wins by over 29.5 pointsKalshi97% NoOpen
Florida wins by over 30.5 pointsKalshi98% NoOpen
Miami (FL) wins by over 7.5 pointsKalshi88% NoOpen
Miami (FL) wins by over 15.5 pointsKalshi92% NoOpen
Miami (FL) wins by over 11.5 pointsKalshi94% NoOpen
Florida wins by over 22.5 pointsKalshi94% NoOpen
Florida wins by over 18.5 pointsKalshi88% NoOpen
Florida wins by over 15.5 pointsKalshi82% NoOpen
Florida wins by over 12.5 pointsKalshi73% NoOpen
Florida wins by over 21.5 pointsKalshi91% NoOpen
Florida wins by over 25.5 pointsKalshi93% NoOpen
Florida wins by over 17.5 pointsKalshi85% NoOpen
Florida wins by over 14.5 pointsKalshi78% NoOpen

Venue activity

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As of Nov 2, 06:54 PM UTC