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Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5

Over50%
Under50%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
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Liquidity—
Spread100%
ResolvesNov 7, 2026in 6 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 30, 04:49 PMOct 31, 03:12 AMOct 31, 01:36 PMNov 1, 12:00 AMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total. If set 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak or played as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with set 2 at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. If the match ends before set 2 is reached, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or play has not begun by November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Erste Bank Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos AlcarazPolymarket85% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Daniil Medvedev (+1.5)Polymarket62% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Erste Bank Open: Completed Match: Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos AlcarazPolymarket54% YesOpen
Set 1 Winner: Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos AlcarazPolymarket62% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket57% Under 2.5Open
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket76% OverOpen
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket71% UnderOpen
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket100% OverOpen
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 23.5Polymarket50% OverOpen
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket78% OverOpen
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Set 2 Winner: Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos AlcarazPolymarket64% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket50% OverOpen

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As of Nov 1, 01:59 PM UTC