Iowa Senate: margin of victory: Will the margin of victory for Josh Turek in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa be between 2% and 4%? Josh Turek, 2-4%

If the margin of victory for Josh Turek in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa is within 2% to 4%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Josh Turek minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Josh Turek if Josh Turek wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Josh Turek loses. If Josh Turek wins, the margin will be positive; if Josh Turek loses, the margin will be negative; if Josh Turek ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Josh Turek runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.