PolymarketOpen

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% before 2027?

Yes68%

No32%

Price checked at Nov 1, 09:23 AM UTC

Prices have not been checked within the last hour.

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24h volume$177

7d volume$2.4K

30d volume$2.7K

Liquidity$497

Spread30%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Sourcehttps://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?	Polymarket	73% No	$1.6K	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	Polymarket	87% No	$110	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?	Polymarket	86% Yes	$40	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	Polymarket	95% No	$20	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027?	Polymarket	100% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?	Polymarket	100% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?	Polymarket	94% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027?	Polymarket	59% Yes	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

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Comments2

Discussion on Predxy

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2 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

enrico-vasaio · 23 days ago
6.7
wirl · 26 days ago
5.7

As of Nov 1, 01:38 PM UTC