Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027? | Polymarket | 100% Yes | Open |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% before 2027? | Polymarket | 100% Yes | Open |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027? | Polymarket | 76% No | Open |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027? | Polymarket | 64% No | Open |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% before 2027? | Polymarket | 100% Yes | Open |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027? | Polymarket | 90% Yes | Open |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027? | Polymarket | 70% Yes | Open |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% before 2027? | Polymarket | 100% Yes | Open |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027? | Polymarket | 80% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 29, 11:21 PM UTC