PolymarketResolved

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?

Yes100%

No0%

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread0%

ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% before 2027?	Polymarket	100% Yes	$3.5K	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	Polymarket	76% No	$1.7K	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?	Polymarket	63% No	$1.1K	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% before 2027?	Polymarket	100% Yes	$903.5	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?	Polymarket	90% Yes	$679.2	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	Polymarket	70% Yes	$582.7	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% before 2027?	Polymarket	100% Yes	$549.9	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?	Polymarket	79% Yes	$358.3	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027?	Polymarket	97% Yes	$105	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 8 days ago

Holders25

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 76% · best ask 78%

Top holders

ArmageddonRewardsBilly51037070113656833573359096252856376338798553155243965480081813562923689540707
thursdays73966906894228280314980216506667676997123299624317766659460674957661423893612
grinder101173966906894228280314980216506667676997123299624317766659460674957661423893612
title151037070113656833573359096252856376338798553155243965480081813562923689540707
AJSV73966906894228280314980216506667676997123299624317766659460674957661423893612

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY78%$19.58 days ago
SELL75%$2.38 days ago
SELL26%$5.29 days ago
SELL21%$5.29 days ago
SELL28%$289 days ago
BUY74%$14.79 days ago

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As of Sep 30, 01:54 AM UTC