GeminiOpenPart of a cross-venue question

Fed decision in December? — Hike 25bps

Yes74%

No27%

Price checked at Oct 26, 03:12 AM UTC

Trade

Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country

Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.

24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread5%

ResolvesDec 11, 2026in 2 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the Federal Reserve increases rates by 25bps on December 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from the Federal Reserve. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. If the scheduled December 8–9 FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled dates, then the strike for “Fed maintains rate” will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. View the full [rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fa739111ce4d14031b8fa642d703f6417?alt=media\&token=018dc0da-fca8-43f8-a4c4-6d0dde135f95\&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba)

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question

Comparable, not identical. Both use the Federal Reserve as the source of truth and have materially equivalent cancellation rules. Kalshi resolves at Dec 9, 2026 19:05 UTC, while Gemini resolves later on Dec 11, 2026 05:00 UTC; this timing difference does not change the question.

Open
Fed decision in Dec 2026?: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? Hike 25bps
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.
read Oct 25, 11:54 PM UTC
this market
Fed decision in December? — Hike 25bps
If the Federal Reserve increases rates by 25bps on December 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from the Federal Reserve. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. If the scheduled December 8–9 FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled dates, then the strike for “Fed maintains rate” will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. View the full [rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fa739111ce4d14031b8fa642d703f6417?alt=media\&token=018dc0da-fca8-43f8-a4c4-6d0dde135f95\&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba)
read Oct 23, 09:43 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Fed decision in December? — Cut >25bps	Gemini	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Fed decision in December? — Cut 25bps	Gemini	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Fed decision in December? — Fed maintains rate	Gemini	78% No	—	—	—	Open
Fed decision in December? — Hike >25bps	Gemini	95% No	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 3 days ago

Holders—

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Discussion on Predxy

What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

As of Oct 26, 03:23 AM UTC