GeminiOpenPart of a cross-venue question

Fed decision in December? — Hike >25bps

No95%

Yes5%

Price checked at Oct 24, 08:50 PM UTC

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Spread2%

ResolvesDec 11, 2026in 2 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the Federal Reserve increases rates by more than 25bps on December 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from the Federal Reserve. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. If the scheduled December 8–9 FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled dates, then the strike for “Fed maintains rate” will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. View the full [rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fa739111ce4d14031b8fa642d703f6417?alt=media\&token=018dc0da-fca8-43f8-a4c4-6d0dde135f95\&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba)

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

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Comparable, not identical. The venues use different resolution timestamps (December 11 versus December 9), but this does not change the event being measured. Both specify Federal Reserve verification and equivalent cancellation handling; no material resolution difference is apparent.

this market
Fed decision in December? — Hike >25bps
If the Federal Reserve increases rates by more than 25bps on December 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from the Federal Reserve. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. If the scheduled December 8–9 FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled dates, then the strike for “Fed maintains rate” will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. View the full [rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fa739111ce4d14031b8fa642d703f6417?alt=media\&token=018dc0da-fca8-43f8-a4c4-6d0dde135f95\&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba)
read Oct 23, 09:43 AM UTC
Open
Fed decision in Dec 2026?: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting? Hike >25bps
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.
read Oct 22, 07:52 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Fed decision in December? — Cut >25bps	Gemini	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Fed decision in December? — Cut 25bps	Gemini	—	—	—	—	Open
Fed decision in December? — Fed maintains rate	Gemini	78% No	—	—	—	Open
Fed decision in December? — Hike 25bps	Gemini	74% Yes	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

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As of Oct 24, 09:06 PM UTC