Fed decision in December? — Cut 25bps
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If the Federal Reserve decreases rates by 25bps on December 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from the Federal Reserve. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. If the scheduled December 8–9 FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled dates, then the strike for “Fed maintains rate” will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. View the full [rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fa739111ce4d14031b8fa642d703f6417?alt=media\&token=018dc0da-fca8-43f8-a4c4-6d0dde135f95\&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba)
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decision in December? — Cut >25bps | Gemini | 97% No | Open |
| Fed decision in December? — Fed maintains rate | Gemini | 78% No | Open |
| Fed decision in December? — Hike >25bps | Gemini | 95% No | Open |
| Fed decision in December? — Hike 25bps | Gemini | 74% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Oct 24, 11:59 PM UTC