TIME Person of the Year 2026: Lionel Messi

No95%
Yes6%

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24h volume$382
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread1%
ResolvesJan 15, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2, 08:20 AMOct 2, 06:53 PMOct 3, 05:26 AMOct 3, 03:59 PM

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Lionel Messi is TIME Person of the Year in 2026, this market will settle to Yes. Outcome verified by TIME Magazine. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they are explicitly named by TIME as TIME Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple persons, concepts, groups, entities, or things are named TIME Person of the Year, each such named person, concept, group, entity, or thing will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a non-human concept, group, entity, or thing, a listed person will still be considered to be TIME Person of the Year if the person is directly associated with the concept, group, entity or thing named TIME Person of the Year and is pictured on any official TIME Person of the Year cover. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was Architects of AI, Contracts for Sam Altman would have settled to Yes, as Altman was associated with the concept and pictured on the cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g., artificial intelligence), listed non-human concepts, groups, entities, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were TIME Person of the Year, Contracts for AI or LLMs would not settle to Yes because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous. If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g., 2011s The Protester or 2017s The Silence Breakers), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases non-human concepts, groups, entities, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, Contracts for The Me Too Movement would have settled to Yes in 2017.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Kalshi resolves by January 1, 2027, while PolymarketUs resolves by January 15, 2027; both rely on TIME’s designation, with PolymarketUs expressly identifying TIME as the verification source. The published criteria otherwise differ only in settlement-rule detail, not materially for this question.
  • KalshiOpen →

    Time's Person of the Year for 2026: Will Lionel Messi be Time Person of the Year in 2026?

    If Lionel Messi is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This will count towards the payout criterion: If multiple persons win, all persons that are listed are encompassed within the Payout Criterion. If, for example, the Person of the Year is “Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, both “Joe Biden” and “Kamala Harris” strikes are encompassed within the Payout Criterion. The person must be explicitly named as the Person of the Year or pictured on the/a relevant cover if they are associated with the group/concept winning (the picture is only relevant for a natural human being winning). Some examples to illustrate this: “Jamal Khasogghi” would resolve to Yes in 2018, when “The Guardians” won, as he is also named and shown on a cover and falls within “The Guardians”. Similarly, “Bill Gates” would resolve to Yes in 2005. If Time uses language that does not specifically refer to a person or organization (examples being 2018’s “The Guardians of Truth” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), Kalshi will resolve markets to the most simple meaning reasonable. In those cases, “Journalists” and “the Me Too movement” would resolve to Yes. This does NOT count towards the payout criterion: If there is no Person of the Year (and instead many variations thereof, e.g. Entertainer of the Year, Hero of the Year), that is not encompassed in the Payout Criterion. If “ChatGPT” was the Person of the Year, strikes of “AI” or “LLMs” would resolve to No, since even if they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous (and thus are not explicitly named), and are not persons, so it would not matter if they were identified in the image. Or if “Sam Altman” was the Person of the Year, and the cover showed a person using ChatGPT on their computer, “ChatGPT” would not resolve to Yes because it is not a person. This market and these products have not been endorsed by TIME. Any references to TIME, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between TIME and Kalshi.

    read Oct 3, 02:34 PM UTC

  • PolymarketUsthis market

    TIME Person of the Year 2026: Lionel Messi

    If Lionel Messi is TIME Person of the Year in 2026, this market will settle to Yes. Outcome verified by TIME Magazine. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they are explicitly named by TIME as TIME Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple persons, concepts, groups, entities, or things are named TIME Person of the Year, each such named person, concept, group, entity, or thing will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a non-human concept, group, entity, or thing, a listed person will still be considered to be TIME Person of the Year if the person is directly associated with the concept, group, entity or thing named TIME Person of the Year and is pictured on any official TIME Person of the Year cover. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was Architects of AI, Contracts for Sam Altman would have settled to Yes, as Altman was associated with the concept and pictured on the cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g., artificial intelligence), listed non-human concepts, groups, entities, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were TIME Person of the Year, Contracts for AI or LLMs would not settle to Yes because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous. If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g., 2011s The Protester or 2017s The Silence Breakers), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases non-human concepts, groups, entities, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, Contracts for The Me Too Movement would have settled to Yes in 2017.

    read Oct 3, 03:17 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Zohran MamdaniPolymarketUs66% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Pope Leo XIVPolymarketUs88% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Artificial IntelligencePolymarketUs94% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Donald TrumpPolymarketUs89% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Dario AmodeiPolymarketUs89% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Benjamin NetanyahuPolymarketUs93% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Elon MuskPolymarketUs92% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Bad BunnyPolymarketUs98% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Sam AltmanPolymarketUs91% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Taylor SwiftPolymarketUs97% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: ChatGPTPolymarketUs96% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Reid WisemanPolymarketUs96% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Jeremy HansenPolymarketUs93% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: James TalaricoPolymarketUs93% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Shehbaz SharifPolymarketUs96% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Mojtaba KhameneiPolymarketUs96% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Mohammad-Bagher GhalibafPolymarketUs95% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Christina KochPolymarketUs98% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Marco RubioPolymarketUs98% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Jerome PowellPolymarketUs98% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Xi JinpingPolymarketUs98% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Victor GloverPolymarketUs95% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Alysa LiuPolymarketUs98% NoOpen
TIME Person of the Year 2026: Peter MagyarPolymarketUs97% NoOpen

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As of Oct 3, 04:04 PM UTC