PascalOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

China invades Taiwan by: Dec 31

No98%

Yes2%

Price checked at Oct 2, 09:38 AM UTC

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Spread1%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

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Resolution rules

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SourcePolymarket market will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027

The same question elsewhere

3 venues carry it

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Comparable, not identical. Polymarket and Limitless publish identical substantive criteria and source rules. Pascal publishes no criteria but references the Polymarket market as its resolution source; its settlement timestamp differs by one second, which is immaterial.

PolymarketOpen →
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
11.6K holders · 73 comments · read Oct 1, 06:03 PM UTC
LimitlessOpen →
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
74 holders · read Oct 2, 09:15 AM UTC
Pascalthis market
China invades Taiwan by: Dec 31
The venue publishes no resolution criteria for this market.
read Oct 2, 09:30 AM UTC

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Read from the venue 8 minutes ago

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As of Oct 2, 09:38 AM UTC