LimitlessOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

No97%

Yes3%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:26 PM UTC

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7d volume—

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ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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PolymarketOpen →
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
11.6K holders · 73 comments · read Sep 27, 05:39 AM UTC
Limitlessthis market
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
76 holders · read Sep 29, 08:18 PM UTC

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 hours ago

Holders76

Held value$3.6K

Trades (24h)—

Trades310

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 3% · best ask 4%

Top holders

0x55223D44e1110EC0a53833846fA3229Cb9816337No$2.4K
0x5D1C4EC2B34229b5f64CE9c33f6c293D062Cc606No$384.6
0x0DFB682a08aaA6B7E9Ac097bbd7a516BC362cC67No$223.3
0xB1A36bE1Ed2F36bcC3B138CAD10366A6b5d550A8No$121.3
M1xuNo$58.8

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Recent trades

—3%$7.810 days ago
—3%$33.910 days ago
—5%$1.920 days ago
—96%$4.821 days ago
—4%$0.423 days ago
—97%$0.423 days ago

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As of Sep 29, 10:26 PM UTC