PolymarketOpen

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?

Yes76%

No24%

Price checked at Oct 2, 09:24 AM UTC

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24h volume$364.9

7d volume$364.9

30d volume$364.9

Liquidity$203.6

Spread46%

ResolvesNov 16, 2026next month

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the 15th SpaceX Starship flight test lifts off from its launch pad by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Liftoff is defined as the vehicle rising off the launch mount under its own power; a static fire, a hold, or an abort after ignition does not count. Any subsequent anomaly after liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026?	Polymarket	66% No	$1.5K	—	—	Open
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?	Polymarket	86% Yes	$1.3K	—	—	Open
Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?	Polymarket	81% No	$453.3	—	—	Open
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?	Polymarket	61% No	$92.4	—	—	Open
Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?	Polymarket	67% No	$40.2	—	—	Open
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 achieve a successful splashdown?	Polymarket	52% Yes	$20	—	—	Open

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As of Oct 2, 09:25 AM UTC