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Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?

Yes71%
No29%

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24h volume$182
7d volume$227
30d volume$227
Liquidity$194.6
Spread33%
ResolvesJul 1, 2027in 9 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 28, 07:22 PMSep 29, 09:52 AMSep 30, 12:21 AMSep 30, 02:50 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the 15th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

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As of Sep 30, 03:33 PM UTC