Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the 15th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15? | Polymarket | 84% No | Open |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026? | Polymarket | 77% Yes | Open |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster? | Polymarket | 67% No | Open |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 57% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 30, 03:33 PM UTC