Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If the 15th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15? | Polymarket | 79% No | Open |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster? | Polymarket | 68% No | Open |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 57% Yes | Open |
| Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode? | Polymarket | 72% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 30, 12:31 PM UTC