PolymarketOpen

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?

No68%
Yes32%

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24h volume$557
7d volume$837
30d volume$837
Liquidity$311.3
Spread3%
ResolvesJul 1, 2027in 9 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 28, 07:22 PMSep 29, 07:17 AMSep 29, 07:11 PMSep 30, 07:06 AMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the 15th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 15th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 15th launch, and this market will stay open until the 15th launch has occurred. If the 15th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?Polymarket66% NoOpen
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?Polymarket79% YesOpen
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026?Polymarket51% NoOpen
Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?Polymarket77% YesOpen

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As of Sep 30, 08:13 AM UTC