PolymarketOpen

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?

No99%
Yes1%

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24h volume$5.8K
7d volume$5.8K
30d volume$5.8K
Liquidity$16.2K
Spread0%
ResolvesNov 1, 2026in 30 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 1, 03:17 PMOct 1, 07:22 PMOct 1, 11:28 PMOct 2, 03:33 AMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

No recorded data before Oct 1 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Polymarket97% NoOpen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Polymarket100% NoOpen

Venue activity

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Comments1.6K

Discussion on Predxy

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1,603 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • dfry55hjhj · 11 hours ago

    Official confirmation is doing the heavy lifting

  • Furyhound · 12 hours ago

    yeah, I"m also in that mindset. I KNOW they exist. you just said go all in a few days before september. so I thought you meant to save the september bet. Fingers crossed you are right. our big advantage is Trump has very few cards up his sleeve as nov elections are closing in on him. if he reveals e.t's, it can be a big win for him. unfortunately, the e.t's themselves were talking more about an announcement in 2027. which confuses me cause earlier I thought they meant disclosure is THIS year (why I went so deep in) and arrival next year.

  • angelsdemons · yesterday

    David Grusch on Joe Rogan now

  • MattWalker · yesterday

    Gentlemen, it was an honor! 🤝 o7 I do not regret a single cent, reds. At the end of December, I'll explain to you why. By then, even if you’ve won, your hair will stand on end in hindsight. 👽😱 Congratulations to the reds— you bastards turned out to have diamond hands. 💎👐🔴 Green colleagues, I don't think having paper hands suits us at all, but unfortunately, all the paper hands turned out to be green. 🧻👐🟢 Shame on us. 🤔🙃

  • Stelthman · 3 days ago

    I remain skeptical of the annual hype.

  • fuxy · 3 days ago

    me rn

  • angelsdemons · 4 days ago

    Oval Office Announcement at 2 pm ET on Monday

  • dfhtrf76r5tsdf · 4 days ago

    My tinfoil hat wants better reception

  • Lerra · 5 days ago

    The universe owes us a clearer photograph👽️

  • WhaleWatch-58614 · 5 days ago

    0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952 spent $156,636.92 on December 31 outcome No. Profit so far: $28,223.56. That position is printing money right now.

  • WhaleWatch-14549 · 5 days ago

    0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952 spent $156,636.92 on December 31 outcome No. Profit so far: $28,223.56. That position is printing money right now.

  • conormurphy · 5 days ago

  • angelsdemons · 5 days ago

    Sen. John Kennedy (R-Louisiana) said on Fox News that the people running Iran are reptiles. There you go disclosure.

  • angelsdemons · 5 days ago

    yes but with PURSUE, they provided "extraterrestrial terrestrial things"

  • fuxy · 5 days ago

    that's from may

  • fuxy · 5 days ago

    so my belief is that there is no question about the existence of aliens and ufo. for me , the real question is : will trump have a press conference before midterms ?

  • angelsdemons · 5 days ago

    UFO has its own TAB, even more real than Navy, Airforce, Marines and Army on Department of War website

  • angelsdemons · 5 days ago

    Trump said: “We're releasing a lot of information having to do with extraterrestrial terrestrial things…”

  • CossackBOY · 6 days ago

    I'm waiting for something beyond blurry footage.

  • TexasOx · 6 days ago

    Bashar approves of this message

As of Oct 2, 04:02 AM UTC