PolymarketOpen

Set 1 Winner: Lorenzo Giustino vs Matthew William Donald

Lorenzo Giustino54%
Matthew William Donald47%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$2.3K
Spread5%
ResolvesOct 8, 2026in 7 days

Probability history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 29, 04:51 PMSep 30, 02:25 AMSep 30, 12:00 PMSep 30, 09:34 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Giustino and Matthew William Donald in the Bari, originally scheduled for October 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Lorenzo Giustino” if Lorenzo Giustino wins the first set. It will resolve to “Matthew William Donald” if Matthew William Donald wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Giustino vs. Donald: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Giustino vs. Donald: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Set Handicap: Lorenzo Giustino (-1.5) vs Matthew William Donald (+1.5)Polymarket67% Matthew William DonaldOpen
Giustino vs. Donald: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket54% UnderOpen
Giustino vs. Donald: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket74% OverOpen
Lorenzo Giustino vs. Matthew William Donald: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket61% Under 2.5Open
Giustino vs. Donald: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket75% UnderOpen
Giustino vs. Donald: Match O/U 23.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Giustino vs. Donald: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Set 2 Winner: Lorenzo Giustino vs Matthew William DonaldPolymarket50% Lorenzo GiustinoOpen
Giustino vs. Donald: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket54% OverOpen
Game Spread: Lorenzo Giustino (-1.5) vs Matthew William Donald (+1.5)Polymarket52% Matthew William DonaldOpen
Giustino vs. Donald: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket50% OverOpen
Lorenzo Giustino vs Matthew William Donald: Lorenzo Giustino winsPolymarket53% Lorenzo GiustinoOpen
Bari: Completed Match: Lorenzo Giustino vs Matthew William DonaldPolymarket62% YesOpen

Venue activity

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As of Sep 30, 09:46 PM UTC