PolymarketOpen

Game Spread: Daniil Medvedev (-3.5) vs Pablo Carreno Busta (+3.5)

Daniil Medvedev61%
Pablo Carreno Busta39%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$9.7K
Spread3%
ResolvesOct 8, 2026in 8 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 29, 02:51 PMSep 29, 09:26 PMSep 30, 04:01 AMSep 30, 10:36 AM

No recorded data before Sep 29 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Daniil Medvedev" if Daniil Medvedev wins 3.5 or more total games than Pablo Carreno Busta in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pablo Carreno Busta". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Daniil Medvedev could no longer have finished 3.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Pablo Carreno Busta". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
China Open: Completed Match: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno BustaPolymarket54% YesOpen
Set Handicap: Daniil Medvedev (-1.5) vs Pablo Carreno Busta (+1.5)Polymarket56% Daniil MedvedevOpen
Medvedev vs. Busta: Match O/U 23.5Polymarket60% UnderOpen
Medvedev vs. Busta: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket75% OverOpen
Daniil Medvedev vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket68% Under 2.5Open
Medvedev vs. Busta: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket74% UnderOpen
Medvedev vs. Busta: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Set 2 Winner: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno BustaPolymarket73% Daniil MedvedevOpen
Medvedev vs. Busta: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Medvedev vs. Busta: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket58% UnderOpen
Medvedev vs. Busta: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Medvedev vs. Busta: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket52% UnderOpen
Medvedev vs. Busta: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket50% OverOpen
China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno BustaPolymarket79% Daniil MedvedevOpen
Set 1 Winner: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno BustaPolymarket72% Daniil MedvedevOpen

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As of Sep 30, 11:06 AM UTC