PolymarketOpen

Set Handicap: Daniil Medvedev (-1.5) vs Pablo Carreno Busta (+1.5)

Daniil Medvedev56%
Pablo Carreno Busta45%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$15.2K
Spread3%
ResolvesOct 8, 2026in 8 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 29, 10:50 AMSep 29, 04:57 PMSep 29, 11:04 PMSep 30, 05:12 AM

No recorded data before Sep 29 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Pablo Carreno Busta in the China Open, originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Daniil Medvedev" if Daniil Medvedev wins by 2 or more sets than Pablo Carreno Busta, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Pablo Carreno Busta." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Daniil Medvedev can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Pablo Carreno Busta." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by October 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
China Open: Completed Match: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno BustaPolymarket54% YesOpen
Medvedev vs. Busta: Match O/U 23.5Polymarket64% UnderOpen
Medvedev vs. Busta: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket75% OverOpen
Daniil Medvedev vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket68% Under 2.5Open
Medvedev vs. Busta: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket74% UnderOpen
Medvedev vs. Busta: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Set 2 Winner: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno BustaPolymarket72% Daniil MedvedevOpen
Medvedev vs. Busta: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Medvedev vs. Busta: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket59% UnderOpen
Game Spread: Daniil Medvedev (-3.5) vs Pablo Carreno Busta (+3.5)Polymarket61% Daniil MedvedevOpen
Medvedev vs. Busta: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Medvedev vs. Busta: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket52% UnderOpen
Medvedev vs. Busta: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno BustaPolymarket79% Daniil MedvedevOpen
Set 1 Winner: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno BustaPolymarket72% Daniil MedvedevOpen

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As of Sep 30, 05:51 AM UTC