PolymarketOpen

Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Alex Michelsen (+1.5)

Carlos Alcaraz60%
Alex Michelsen40%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$28.4K
Spread2%
ResolvesOct 7, 2026in 7 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 28, 01:27 PMSep 29, 01:11 AMSep 29, 12:54 PMSep 30, 12:38 AMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Alex Michelsen in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Carlos Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins by 2 or more sets than Alex Michelsen, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Alex Michelsen." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Carlos Alcaraz can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Alex Michelsen." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Completed Match: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex MichelsenPolymarket52% YesOpen
Set 1 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex MichelsenPolymarket76% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket60% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket50% OverOpen
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket50% OverOpen
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 23.5Polymarket64% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket55% UnderOpen
Set 2 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex MichelsenPolymarket75% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket60% UnderOpen
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex Michelsen: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket69% Under 2.5Open
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket50% OverOpen
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex MichelsenPolymarket83% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Game Spread: Carlos Alcaraz (-4.5) vs Alex Michelsen (+4.5)Polymarket53% Alex MichelsenOpen
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket55% OverOpen

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As of Sep 30, 12:50 AM UTC