PolymarketOpen

Game Spread: Carlos Alcaraz (-4.5) vs Alex Michelsen (+4.5)

Alex Michelsen52%
Carlos Alcaraz48%

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24h volume$99.3
7d volume$99.3
30d volume$99.3
Liquidity$20.7K
Spread2%
ResolvesOct 7, 2026in 7 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 28, 10:51 AMSep 28, 10:53 PMSep 29, 10:55 AMSep 29, 10:56 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Carlos Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins 4.5 or more total games than Alex Michelsen in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Alex Michelsen". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Carlos Alcaraz could no longer have finished 4.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Alex Michelsen". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Completed Match: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex MichelsenPolymarket52% YesOpen
Set 1 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex MichelsenPolymarket76% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket61% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket50% OverOpen
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 23.5Polymarket65% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket54% UnderOpen
Set 2 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex MichelsenPolymarket75% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket60% UnderOpen
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex Michelsen: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket69% Under 2.5Open
Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Alex Michelsen (+1.5)Polymarket60% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex MichelsenPolymarket83% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket56% OverOpen

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As of Sep 29, 11:00 PM UTC