PolymarketOpen

Set 1 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen

Carlos Alcaraz76%

Alex Michelsen25%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:06 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$23K

Spread3%

ResolvesOct 7, 2026in 7 days

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Alex Michelsen in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to “Carlos Alcaraz” if Carlos Alcaraz wins the first set. It will resolve to “Alex Michelsen” if Alex Michelsen wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics.

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Completed Match: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen	Polymarket	52% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5	Polymarket	51% Under	—	—	—	Open
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5	Polymarket	62% Under	—	—	—	Open
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5	Polymarket	51% Under	—	—	—	Open
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5	Polymarket	50% Over	—	—	—	Open
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 23.5	Polymarket	65% Under	—	—	—	Open
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 21.5	Polymarket	55% Under	—	—	—	Open
Set 2 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen	Polymarket	75% Carlos Alcaraz	—	—	—	Open
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 22.5	Polymarket	60% Under	—	—	—	Open
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex Michelsen: Total Sets O/U 2.5	Polymarket	69% Under 2.5	—	—	—	Open
Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Alex Michelsen (+1.5)	Polymarket	60% Carlos Alcaraz	—	—	—	Open
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5	Polymarket	51% Under	—	—	—	Open
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen	Polymarket	83% Carlos Alcaraz	$1.3K	—	—	Open
Game Spread: Carlos Alcaraz (-4.5) vs Alex Michelsen (+4.5)	Polymarket	52% Alex Michelsen	$99.3	—	—	Open
Alcaraz vs. Michelsen: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5	Polymarket	58% Over	$10	—	—	Open

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As of Sep 29, 10:16 PM UTC