PolymarketOpen

Set Handicap: Rei Sakamoto (-1.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+1.5)

Rei Sakamoto51%
Matteo Arnaldi49%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$25.6K
Spread2%
ResolvesOct 7, 2026in 6 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 28, 10:51 AMSep 29, 04:14 AMSep 29, 09:37 PMSep 30, 03:00 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Rei Sakamoto and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Rei Sakamoto" if Rei Sakamoto wins by 2 or more sets than Matteo Arnaldi, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Matteo Arnaldi." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Rei Sakamoto can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Matteo Arnaldi." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Completed Match: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei SakamotoPolymarket50% NoOpen
Set 1 Winner: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei SakamotoPolymarket51% Matteo ArnaldiOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket91% OverOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Game Spread: Rei Sakamoto (-0.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+0.5)Polymarket50% Rei SakamotoOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket50% OverOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket91% OverOpen
Set 2 Winner: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei SakamotoPolymarket58% Rei SakamotoOpen
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei SakamotoPolymarket58% Rei SakamotoOpen
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Rei Sakamoto: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket52% Under 2.5Open
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Match O/U 23.5Polymarket99% OverOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket91% OverOpen

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As of Sep 30, 03:09 PM UTC