PolymarketOpen

Set 1 Winner: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei Sakamoto

Rei Sakamoto54%
Matteo Arnaldi46%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$40.5K
Spread2%
ResolvesOct 7, 2026in 7 days

Probability history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 28, 10:51 AMSep 29, 01:12 AMSep 29, 03:33 PMSep 30, 05:55 AMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Arnaldi and Rei Sakamoto in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to “Matteo Arnaldi” if Matteo Arnaldi wins the first set. It will resolve to “Rei Sakamoto” if Rei Sakamoto wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics.

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Completed Match: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei SakamotoPolymarket53% YesOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket57% OverOpen
Game Spread: Rei Sakamoto (-0.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+0.5)Polymarket54% Rei SakamotoOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket50% OverOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket79% OverOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket62% OverOpen
Set Handicap: Rei Sakamoto (-1.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+1.5)Polymarket66% Matteo ArnaldiOpen
Set 2 Winner: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei SakamotoPolymarket55% Rei SakamotoOpen
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei SakamotoPolymarket57% Rei SakamotoOpen
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Rei Sakamoto: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket58% Under 2.5Open
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Match O/U 23.5Polymarket54% UnderOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket66% UnderOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket53% OverOpen

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As of Sep 30, 06:01 AM UTC